The Decarbonising heat in homes report finds the government’s low carbon heating policies to be ineffective and inadequate in helping to meet the UK’s 2050 net zero target. Guidelines such as the Heat and Buildings Strategy, published in October 2021 after months of delay, fail to outline how heat decarbonisation targets will be achieved and what contingencies are available if they are unsuccessful. 

The BEIS Committee urges the government to act now to help people reduce their bills and improve their energy efficiency. Their recommendations include informing the public of the importance and benefits of insulating their homes and switching from gas; scaling up the national heat pump market to 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028; and providing support to gas boiler engineers who will need to re-skill to undertake this work. 

Darren Jones, Chair of the BEIS Committee, commented: ‘Replacing gas boilers is a huge task and we are not making anywhere near enough progress. As it stands, we will miss our net zero target. The government must act urgently to help speed up delivery and support bill payers and workers who will be affected by the change.’

In 2019, 17% of heating emissions in the UK came from homes, roughly equal to the emissions of all petrol and diesel cars, says the Climate Change Committee (CCC). It estimates that some 29mn homes need to be upgraded to low carbon heating systems by 2050. Complicating matters is the fact that the UK’s housing stock is among the oldest and worst insulated in Europe. 

Progress in this area has been limited and has mostly come from improving energy efficiency and installing more efficient heating systems, for instance condensing gas boilers. Overall, less than 5% of heating currently comes from low carbon sources. 

But emissions from residential buildings need to decline by 3.4% annually every year between now and 2050 to reach net zero based on current emission levels, says the CCC. This represents a six-fold increase in emissions reductions over the next 30 years, compared to the previous three decades. 

Decarbonising heating in UK homes will rely predominantly on insulation and technologies such as heat pumps, hydrogen or heat networks, according to the report. The CCC states that by 2050, all heating in homes should be low carbon, with around half to be provided by heat pumps, roughly 40% by district heating, 5% by hydrogen boilers, and about 1% in new direct electric heating. 

To achieve decarbonisation in this sector by 2050, the CCC estimates that an investment of around £250bn will be necessary. This equates to £9bn each year from the late 2020s to 2050.