The report, Mind the gap: How carbon dioxide removals must complement deep decarbonisation to keep 1.5°C alive, states that all sectors of the economy ‘can and must decarbonise by mid-century’, with big emission reductions in the 2020s. Cutting coal use by half and ending 70% of deforestation by 2030 are particularly important priorities. However, even given the fastest feasible path of emissions reductions, the world will need at least 70–220 Gt of carbon removals between now and 2050 to limit cumulative net emissions to a level compatible with globally agreed climate objectives, says the ETC.

These removals could be achieved via a combination of natural climate solutions such as reforestation and improved soil management; engineered solutions, for example using direct air capture (DAC) of CO₂; and hybrid solutions such as bioenergy plus carbon capture and storage (CCS). NCS solutions will dominate in the early years but carry measurement and permanent risks which must be carefully managed, suggests the report. Meanwhile engineered solutions are currently far more expensive, but costs can and must be reduced over time, it says.

According to the ETC, a ‘feasible scenario’ suggests that from ‘close to zero’ today, carbon removals could reach 3.5 Gt/y by 2030 and could deliver around 165 Gt of cumulative sequestration over the next 30 years.

A portfolio approach 

No single CDR solution can be deployed in significant enough volumes to deliver the emissions removals required, and each entails different costs and risks, notes the report. A portfolio approach is therefore required, with a variety of solutions playing vital and complementary roles.

Initially the bulk of investment must be focused on reforestation and delivering other NCS, alongside early scale-up support for engineered and hybrid solutions. In the 2030s and 2040s the portfolio is likely to shift towards hybrid and engineered solutions as these newer technologies scale, bringing down costs and increasing availability.

However, removals will only occur if someone pays for them. A massive ramp-up of financial support from both governments and corporates is needed to scale removals in the coming decades. Currently, funding for emissions removal is very limited, less than $10bn/y, says the ETC, with the voluntary carbon markets delivering just 10 Mt/y of emissions removals. This is equivalent to less than 0.1% of global emissions.

‘Unless we develop CO₂ emissions rapidly and on large scale – closing the gap in both ambition and funding between today's minimal level and what we need – it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5°C. It's not either/or – deep decarbonisation or carbon dioxide removals. Both are essential, rapidly and at scale, if we are to avoid enormous harm to people across the world,’ states Adair Turner, Chair, ETC.

Supporting some 3.5 Gt/y of removals in 2030 could require annual payments of over $200bn, according to the report. Over the next three decades sequestering 165 Gt could require payments of around $15tn, equivalent to around 0.25% of projected global GDP over this period. In contrast, required investment in clean power is around 1.5% of GDP over the same period.

Government and corporate action

Voluntary carbon markets will play an important role in scaling up CDR, but even under ambitious projections are only likely to meet one third of 2030 volume required, warns the ETC. Further action will be required with governments supporting via market creation (eg emissions trading schemes), via direct finance and purchase of removals, and by redirecting agricultural subsidies and funding of nature restoration.

In turn, corporates need to meet their obligations in compliance markets (eg EU Emissions Trading Scheme). ‘In addition, high ambition corporates should choose to commit to 1.5°C aligned science-based pathways to reduce emissions, with any remaining emissions fully neutralised via carbon credits. Crucially, the type of carbon credits corporates purchase should shift away from today's focus on emissions reductions, towards removals,’ states the ETC.

Government and corporates need to work together to create the enabling conditions for CDR – building supporting infrastructure (eg renewable power, CCSU), accelerating innovation (eg enhanced weathering) and delivering training in areas such as improved land management practices. In addition, risk should be managed by governments and regulators investing in monitoring and verification technologies, and standardising best-practices, suggests the study.

Nigel Topping, UK High Level Climate Action Champion, says: ‘In addition to rapid and deep decarbonisation, governments and corporates must work together, starting now, to scale-up an ambitious and diverse portfolio of CDR solutions. As we look ahead to COP27, this is vital to delivering on commitments made in Glasgow and keeping 1.5°C alive.’