In normal news weeks, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releasing its starkest report yet on the impacts of climate change would have generated an avalanche of headlines and pixels upon pixels of digital column inches. Particularly as the world’s most authoritative voice on climate change only drops these reports every six to seven years. 

However, Monday 28 February 2022 sat at the front of anything but a normal news week, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four days earlier violently stealing the editorial agenda.

‘May you live in interesting times’ seems like a pleasant piece of advice given the events of the last few years, with a war against a new virus now superseded by a war against a warped despot. Indeed, even last year the IPCC’s Working Group I (WGI) report on climate change science received less attention than its predecessor, with the fatigue from COVID-19 perhaps limiting the appetite for yet more doom-scrolling.

It’s critical, however, that the IPCC’s messages don’t go unheard amidst the current turmoil. In fact, they only act to bolster the rationale behind part of the response to the war in Ukraine.

What’s the IPCC saying?

The latest report is from IPCC WGII and summarises the latest thinking on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. It’s part of the IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle and follows WGI’s report on climate change science, which also came with sobering conclusions. It will be followed in April by WGIII reporting on climate change mitigation, with a synthesis report due later this year.

The full WGII report runs to 3,675 pages and summarises the latest thinking on the interdependence between climate change, ecosystems, biodiversity and human societies.

It pulls no punches. The analysis found that no inhabited region is immune from severe climate change impacts, and that approximately 50% of the global population live in areas ‘highly vulnerable’ to climate change. Even at current levels of warming, millions face food and water shortages, while mass species die-offs are already starting. Increasingly interconnected global supply chains are particularly vulnerable. Above 1.5°C of warming, impacts will quickly worsen, and some will become irreversible.

So, quite a big deal. The report also highlights the extent to which climate change is already contributing to humanitarian crises around the world – a trend that is set to continue.

It’s safe to say this gives us plenty of reasons to advance the energy transition as quickly as possible to limit these impacts and the future the report so comprehensively details. The fact the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently announced global energy-related emissions are now at their highest-ever level only adds to the urgency. 

Other immediate concerns

Intertwined with climate change is a complex web of geopolitics and energy interdependence, with much of Europe – and indeed the world – reliant on Russia’s vast reserves of oil and natural gas. This reliance has come into sharp focus over recent weeks.

Energy security was already an elevated concern for governments given the recent significant rises in global oil and gas prices. The war has thrust it toward the top of the political agenda.

Some responses, such as calls from certain corners of Parliament to resume the so-far unsuccessful quest to tap shale gas resources in the UK, are rather short-sighted, out of step with net-zero commitments and indeed wouldn’t actually do anything to alleviate the situation.

Others are more interesting. The European Union last week unveiled its plans to cut Russian gas dependency by two-thirds this year and end it completely by 2030. To do this, renewables will do a lot of heavy lifting. The plans include a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030, which means an additional 420 GW of solar and 480 GW of wind. Energy efficiency would also play a large role, with a reduction of heating demand and the installation of 30mn heat pumps having the potential to save the EU 45bn m³ of gas imports a year. The US might even get involved to help supply these heat pumps. 

Elsewhere, Germany has brought forward its target to generate 100% of its electricity from renewables from 2040 to 2035. And the IEA chipped in with a 10-point plan to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas, with six of the 10 points targeting clean energy generation or efficient energy use.

These measures make even more sense when considering the IPCC’s report. Moving ahead faster to decarbonise the energy system will also limit the severe impacts we might expect from climate change – and avoid climate-induced tension points that could lead to further conflict in the future.

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.