The IEA suggests that practical actions by both governments and citizens in advanced economies and beyond could achieve significant reductions in oil demand in a matter of months. The Agency claims the proposals would reduce the risk of a major supply crunch, reduce the price pain being felt by consumers around the world, lessen economic damage, shrink Russia’s hydrocarbon revenues, and help move oil demand towards a more sustainable pathway.

If fully carried out in advanced economies, the measures recommended by the IEA’s new 10-point plan to cut oil use would lower oil demand by 2.7mn b/d within four months – equivalent to the oil demand of all the cars in China. This would significantly reduce potential strains at a time when much of Russian supplies may no longer reach the market and the peak demand season of July and August is approaching. The measures could have an even greater effect if adopted in part or in full in emerging economies as well, notes the IEA.

The new report also includes recommendations for decisions to be taken now by governments and citizens to transition from the short-term emergency actions included in the 10-point plan to sustained measures that would put oil demand into a structural decline consistent with a pathway towards net zero emissions by 2050.

Since the majority of oil demand comes from transport, the IEA’s plan draws on concrete measures that have already been put to use in a diverse range of countries and cities. The short-term actions it proposes are: 

• Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10 km/h – which could save around 290,000 b/d of oil use from cars, and an additional 140,000 b/d from trucks.
• Work from home up to three days a week where possible – one day a week could save around 170,000 b/d; three days saving around 500,000 b/d.
• Car-free Sundays in cities – every car-free Sunday could save around 380,000 b/d; one Sunday a month would save 95,000 b/d.
• Make the use of public transport cheaper and incentivise micromobility, walking and cycling – could save around 330,000 b/d.
• Alternate private car access to roads in large cities – could save around 210,000 b/d.
• Increase car sharing and adopt practices to reduce fuel use – could save around 470,000 b/d.
• Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and delivery of goods – could save around 320,000 b/d.
• Use high-speed and night trains instead of planes where possible – could save around 40,000 b/d.
• Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist – could save around 260,000 b/d.
• Reinforce the adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles – could save around 100,000 b/d.

(Note: The impacts noted above are short term and reflect implementation in advanced economies where feasible and culturally acceptable.)

‘As a result of Russia’s appalling aggression against Ukraine, the world may well be facing its biggest oil supply shock in decades, with huge implications for our economies and societies,’ said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, launching the plan with Barbara Pompili, Minister for the Ecological Transition of France, which currently holds the Presidency of the European Union. ‘IEA member countries have already stepped in to support the global economy with an initial release of millions of barrels of emergency oil stocks, but we can also take action on demand to avoid the risk of a crippling oil crunch. Our 10-point plan shows this can be done through measures that have already been tested and proven in multiple countries.’

‘France and all European countries must get out of their dependence on fossil fuels, in particular on Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible,’ Minister Pompili added. ‘It is an absolute necessity, for the climate but also for our energy sovereignty. The plan proposed by the IEA offers some interesting ideas, some of which are in line with our own ideas to reduce our dependence on oil.’

The 10-point plan to cut oil use follows the IEA’s publication, earlier in March, of a 10-point plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas imports.