The combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century, according to the study.

The report also says that current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. This is an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

Last year’s analysis showed projected emissions would continue to increase beyond 2030. However, this year's assessment shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2018 report indicated that CO₂ emissions needed to be cut by 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. The latest science from the IPCC released earlier this year uses 2019 as a baseline, indicating that GHG emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030. This is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of this century and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

UN Climate Change analysed the climate action plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – of 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 24 updated or new NDCs submitted after the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) up until 23 September 2022. Taken together, the plans cover 94.9% of total global GHG emissions in 2019.

Commenting on the newly published report, Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, says: ‘At the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow last year, all countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their climate plans. The fact that only 24 new or updated climate plans were submitted since COP26 is disappointing. Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change.’

While the overall findings of the report are stark, there are glimmers of hope. Most of the Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs have strengthened their commitment to reducing or limiting GHG emissions by 2025 and/or 2030, demonstrating increased ambition in addressing climate change.

Worrying trends confirmed
A second study, an update on last year’s NDC synthesis report, has looked at countries’ plans to transition to net zero emissions by or around mid-century. The report indicates that these countries’ GHG emissions could be roughly 68% lower in 2050 than in 2019, if all the long-term strategies are fully implemented on time.

Current long-term strategies (representing 62 Parties to the Paris Agreement) account for 83% of the world’s GDP, 47% of global population in 2019, and around 69% of total energy consumption in 2019. This is a strong signal that the world is starting to aim for net zero emissions.

The report notes, however, that many net zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now. Ambitious climate action before 2030 is urgently needed to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, it says.

Stiell urges national governments to come to COP27* to show how they will put the Paris Agreement to work in their home countries through legislation, policies and programmes, as well as how they will cooperate and provide support for implementation. He is also calling for nations to make progress at COP27 in four priority areas – mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and finance.

‘COP27 will be the world’s watershed moment on climate action,’ says Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs and COP27 President-Designate. ‘The synthesis report is a testimony to the fact that we are off-track on achieving the Paris climate goal and keeping the 1.5 degrees within reach. This is a sobering moment, and we are in a race against time. Several of those who are expected to do more, are far from doing enough, and the consequences of this is affecting lives and livelihoods across the globe.’

*COP27 is taking place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on 6–18 November 2022. 
For more on what to expect at COP27, see this week's article here (EI Members only).