‘The global electricity sector is the first sector that needs to be decarbonised, in parallel with electricity demand rising, as electrification unlocks emissions cuts throughout the entire economy,’ states Ember, noting that the International Energy Agency’s net zero emissions scenario in its World Energy Outlook 2022 report points to a 2040 net zero power sector; a decade ahead of a net zero economy in 2050. ‘Tracking the electricity transition, therefore, is critical to assess our climate progress,’ the think tank continues.

Indeed, according to Ember’s latest global electricity review, decarbonisation of the power sector is underway, as record growth in wind and solar drove the emissions intensity of the world’s electricity to its lowest-ever level of 436 gCO₂/kWh in 2022.

Wind and solar reached a 12% share in the global electricity mix, up from 10% in 2021. Together, all clean electricity sources (renewables and nuclear) reached 39% of global electricity, a new record high. Solar generation rose by 24%, making it the fastest-growing electricity source for 18 years in a row; wind generation grew by 17%, according to the report. Although noting that, today, over 60 countries now generate more than 10% of their electricity from wind and solar, the review also highlights that other sources of clean electricity dropped for the first time since 2011 due to a fall in nuclear output and fewer new nuclear and hydro plants coming online.

Despite the headline drop in the carbon intensity of the global electricity sector, power sector emissions rose in 2022 (+1.3%), reaching an all-time high. Electricity is cleaner than ever, but we are using more of it, notes the report.

Coal generation increased by 1.1%, in line with average growth in the last decade. ‘The coal power phase-down agreed at COP26 in 2021 may not have begun in 2022, but also the energy crisis didn’t lead to a major increase in coal burn as many feared,’ says Ember.

Meanwhile, gas power generation fell marginally (–0.2%) in 2022, for the second time in three years, in the wake of high gas prices. Gas-to-coal switching was limited in 2022 because gas was already mostly more expensive than coal in 2021. Only 31 GW of new gas power plants were built in 2022, the lowest in 18 years. But 2022 saw the lowest number of coal plant closures in seven years, as countries look to maintain back-up capacity, even as the transition picks up speed, according to the report.

However, as noted, wind and solar are slowing the rise in power sector emissions. If all the electricity from wind and solar instead came from fossil generation, power sector emissions would have been 20% higher in 2022, states Ember. The growth alone in wind and solar generation (+557 TWh) met 80% of global electricity demand growth in 2022 (+694 TWh).

Clean power growth is likely to exceed electricity demand growth in 2023; this would be the first year for this to happen outside of a recession, suggests the report. With average growth in electricity demand and clean power, Ember forecasts that 2023 will see a small fall in fossil generation (–47 TWh, –0.3%), with bigger falls in subsequent years as wind and solar grow further. That would mean 2022 hit ‘peak’ emissions, with a new era of falling power sector emissions close at hand.

The report suggests that 2022 will be remembered as a turning point in the world’s transition to clean power. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made many governments rethink their plans amid spiking fossil fuel prices and security concerns about relying on fossil fuel imports. It also accelerated electrification – with more heat pumps, more electric vehicles, more electrolysers. These will drive reductions in emissions for other sectors and will put more pressure to build clean power more quickly.’

However, the report also notes that while ‘a new era of falling power sector emissions is very close, thanks to the electricity superpowers of wind and solar’, wind and solar will need to maintain high growth rates this decade, even as they mature. More growth is needed from all other clean electricity sources, while more attention to efficiency is needed to avoid runaway growth in electricity demand. Urgent work is needed on ensuring wind and solar can be integrated into the grid – planning permissions, grid connections, grid flexibility and market design.

The report indicates that falling fossil generation means not only that the coal power phase-down will happen, but also that, for the first time, a gas power phase-down is now within reach. However, just how quickly power sector emissions will fall is not yet set, the report concludes.

Commenting on the report’s findings, Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Senior Electricity Analyst, Ember, says: ‘In this decisive decade for the climate, it is the beginning of the end of the fossil age. We are entering the clean power era. The stage is set for wind and solar to achieve a meteoric rise to the top. Clean electricity will reshape the global economy, from transport to industry and beyond. A new era of falling fossil emissions means the coal power phase-down will happen, and the end of gas power growth is now within sight. Change is coming fast. However, it all depends on the actions taken now by governments, businesses and citizens to put the world on a pathway to clean power by 2040.’