The US government’s National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap lays a trajectory for achieving low-carbon hydrogen production milestones of 10mn t/y by 2030, 20mn t/y by 2040 and 50mn t/y by 2050. However, Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Analyst Hector Arreola expects US hydrogen producers to struggle to hit these targets as the market has yet to move at the necessary pace to fully capitalise on the production potential outlined in the Strategy.

‘Several factors make meeting these production targets unlikely,’ he says. ‘Renewable power costs, electrolyser load factor and a slower decline in capital expenditures for electrolytic hydrogen (which is projected to be around $1,600/kW in 2030) are all serious headwinds for potential new production.’

Arreola adds that other factors such as temporal matching, geo-location and additionality in carbon intensity calculations could substantially impact the level of production subsidies and the adoption rate.

While the US Strategy is ‘correct’ in identifying that sectors such as ammonia, power, and biofuels/e-fuels will be critical to long-term clean hydrogen adoption, Arreola notes that ‘the level of penetration on each end-use in the US is uncertain and will vary widely due to market forces, decarbonisation alternatives, policy support and go-to-market cost’.

Japan also recently announced its 2nd Basic Hydrogen Strategy, which is targeting a 10-fold increase in domestic hydrogen production between now and 2030. The Japan Strategy looks to support hydrogen and ammonia production increasing to 3mn t/y by 2030 by addressing some of the key challenges facing the industry around high costs, lagging demand, lack of infrastructure development and carbon intensity standardisation.

Japan also plans to introduce a hydrogen subsidy scheme to bridge the cost gap between the high cost of low-carbon hydrogen and the fuel or feedstock it is trying to displace.

‘If Japan intends to attract imports, it must offer something on par with the US ($3/kg of hydrogen) and the EU (€4/kg),’ comments Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Analyst Flor De la Cruz. ‘However, it is unclear if the target is for domestic production or global supply by Japanese affiliated companies.’

Wood Mackenzie research indicates that, to date, 89mn t/y of low-carbon hydrogen projects in Japan have been announced, but midstream infrastructure (maritime, pipelines, storage etc) announcements have lagged.

‘Although more details are yet to come Japan has taken a step in the right direction by revamping its hydrogen strategy to develop the entire hydrogen value chain,’ adds De la Cruz.

Gulf-to-Europe hydrogen pipeline
Meanwhile, RINA, the inspection, certification and consulting engineering multinational, and European engineering, design and advisory services company AFRY have undertaken an initial study of how the Gulf region could be linked directly with a pipeline to transport low-carbon hydrogen to Europe.

With abundant renewable energy sources and natural gas reserves, the Gulf region is claimed to be ‘well placed’ to become a leading global producer of green and blue hydrogen, ammonia and other synthesis products. ‘The concept of a hydrogen pipeline connecting Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and traversing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe may seem ambitious, but initial assessment indicates its feasibility,’ state the two companies.

Their analysis suggests that a ‘suitable pipeline configuration’ could transport 100 TWh, or approximately 2.5mn t/y of hydrogen. Moreover, ‘by constructing additional pipelines of the same nature, the transport capacity could be significantly scaled up’.

The cost of transporting hydrogen through the suggested pipeline is initially forecast to be approximately €1.2/kg of hydrogen The Gulf countries, in turn, could supply green and blue hydrogen to the economic hub of Europe at levelised cost of delivered hydrogen (LCODH) of around €2.7/kg starting from the 2030s, decreasing to around €2.3/kg in the longer term, say RINA and AFRY.

Green light for Australian hydrogen plant
Elsewhere, one of Australia’s largest renewable hydrogen plants is set to go ahead, with the Australian Gas Infrastructure Group (AGIG) reaching financial close on its Hydrogen Park Murray Valley development in Wodonga, Victoria.

On behalf of the Australian government, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has announced a $36.1mn commitment to AGIG for the 10 MW electrolyser deployment, which will produce renewable hydrogen to initially be blended into the local natural gas distribution network, owned by Australian Gas Networks, part of AGIG.

Once operational in 2025, the project will be the largest renewable hydrogen facility on the east coast and equal largest in Australia.

With more than 40,000 connections to the local gas network, the project will supply hydrogen to an estimated 85,000 people spanning the border of Victoria and New South Wales. At a blend of 10%, the project is predicted to cut approximately 4,000 t/y of CO₂. Wodonga’s strategic location along a major road freight route also provides access to other end-use markets, particularly in heavy vehicle transport.

The Victorian government is also supporting the project with $12.315mn through the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA), with additional financial backing from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC).

All aboard the hydrogen train
In other hydrogen news, Quebec has become the very first jurisdiction in Northern America to operate a zero-emission passenger train powered by green hydrogen.

Developed in partnership between Alstom, the government of Quebec, Réseau Charlevoix, Chemin de fer Charlevoix, Harnois Énergies and HTEC, the Coradia iLint train will transport travellers between Parc de la Chute Montmorency and the city of Baie-St-Paul, along the St Lawrence River.