The nations of the MENA region are poised to gain considerably from a renewable energy transition and by some indicators, this transition may be just around the corner, Global Energy Monitor reports. Since May 2022, these countries have added 6.9 GW to their operating large utility-scale solar and wind capacities, an increase of 57%. With 9 GW of renewable energy under construction and set to be completed by the end of 2024, this growth rate is on course to continue.

The report notes that the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Morocco could each be considered potential renewable leaders in the region by a range of metrics, including number of large utility-scale solar and wind projects brought online, prospective project capacity – whether announced, in pre-construction or under construction – as well as ambitious renewable energy targets. Along with Egypt and Jordan, these countries have demonstrated the ability to follow through on plans to build out their renewable energy infrastructure.

At the same time, the renewables capacity added in the last year is relatively unambitious compared to the region’s peers. South America, a region with a similar population size and GDP, has brought online at least four times as much capacity over the same period (32 GW). Brazil alone contributed over 14 GW of large utility-scale solar and wind, the report notes.

The MENA region boasts a substantial catalogue of prospective large utility-scale solar and wind capacity (361 GW). Yet, over half of the region’s prospective capacity is earmarked for green hydrogen production, despite the uncertainty and risk involved with this nascent technology, according to the report.

Nearly half of MENA countries are embracing either green hydrogen or direct energy export in a bid to diversify their economies. While Oman and Morocco appear to be threading the needle by planning sufficient solar and wind projects to meet their domestic green electricity targets, in many MENA countries the focus on green hydrogen may undermine efforts to provide ample domestic electricity access or transition national electricity sectors away from fossil fuels, Global Energy Monitor says.

The report also notes that gas is still ‘king’: some 18 of the 23 countries analysed, including the three potential regional leaders above, intend to expand their gas and oil power plant fleets despite comparable costs of utility-scale solar and wind. Significant progress is therefore critical in order to ‘dethrone’ gas, the report notes. Over 500 GW of additional solar and wind would be needed to replace the generation of existing oil and gas power plants in the region.

Still, when the questionable hydrogen and export projects are subtracted from the region’s prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity, 130 GW remain that, if realised, could make significant progress in displacing oil and gas use for electricity, Global Energy Monitor concludes.