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Global power emissions plateau as wind and solar grow
11/10/2023
News
Global power sector emissions plateaued in 1H2023, with a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year, according to a new report.
Wind and solar were the only two electricity sources that significantly increased their share of global electricity, together providing 14.3% in 1H2023 compared to 12.8% in the same period in 2022, according to the Ember report that analyses electricity data across 78 countries representing 92% of global electricity demand.
Solar in particular is growing rapidly (+16%, +104 TWh), with 50 countries setting new monthly records for solar generation in 1H2023, the report finds. China continues to be the leader, providing 43% of global growth in solar generation, while the European Union (EU), US and India accounted for about 12% each.
Despite this growth in solar and wind, adverse hydro conditions prevented emissions from falling. The first half of the year saw a historic fall in hydro generation (–8.5%, –177 TWh) due to droughts, with China accounting for three-quarters of this figure. As a result, fossil generation increased slightly to meet the deficit created by hydro. Power sector emissions would have fallen by 2.9% had global hydro generation been at the same level as last year, the report notes.
Amid these hydro issues, low electricity demand growth helped to suppress emissions growth. Global electricity demand rose only 0.4% in 1H2023 compared to the same period last year, which is much lower than the 10-year historic average (+2.6%). Falls in demand in some major economies led to significant declines in coal power, most notably in the EU (–23%). As a result, emissions fell in the EU (–17%), Japan (–12%), the US (–8.6%) and South Korea (–3%). Moderate demand growth in India led to slow growth in coal generation, which slowed down the country’s emissions rise to 3.1% in 1H2023 compared to 11% in 2022.
‘It’s still hanging in the balance if 2023 will see a fall in power sector emissions,’ says Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, the lead author of the report and Senior Electricity Analyst at Ember. ‘While it is encouraging to see the remarkable growth of wind and solar energy, we can’t ignore the stark reality of adverse hydro conditions intensified by climate change. The world is teetering at the peak of power sector emissions, and we now need to unleash the momentum for a rapid decline in fossil fuels by securing a global agreement to triple renewables capacity this decade.’
