Global population growth, increased regional manufacturing and higher living standards push growth in energy consumption beyond advances in energy efficiency, according to the EIA’s recent International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO₂023).

In the report, the EIA projects that global energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase through 2050 in most of the cases modelled. Although zero-carbon technology – renewables and nuclear – is expected to meet the bulk of new energy demand in that period, the growth will not be sufficient to decrease global energy-related CO₂ emissions in most cases under current laws and regulations, according to the EIA’s projections.

Across all cases explored in the report, global energy consumption increases, with the fastest growth in the residential and industrial sectors. Global consumption of liquid fuels increases through 2050, with the fastest growth occurring in industrial applications such as chemical production.

Economic growth and increased disposable income also increase demand for transportation in all the scenarios. ‘The transportation and industrial sectors are major consumers of liquid fuels throughout our projection period, but as electric vehicles grow to become a larger part of the global transportation fleet, the industrial sector accounts for an increasing share of petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption,’ EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis says.

Compared with 2022, global electric power generating capacity increases by 55–108% by 2050, depending on the case. Electricity generation increases between 30–76% over that period. Renewables, nuclear and battery storage account for most of the growth in both global capacity and generation, according to the report.

Electricity generation from renewables and nuclear could increase by between 54–67%. ‘Renewables become an increasingly cost-competitive source of electricity and grow the fastest in cases that assume high economic growth and greater electricity demand,’ DeCarolis notes.

Global battery storage capacity also grows significantly in all IEO₂023 cases. In 2022, battery storage accounted for less than 1% of global power capacity. The report projects that battery storage capacity will grow to make up 4–9% of global power capacity by 2050.

In nearly all IEO₂023 cases, growth in energy production from non-fossil fuel sources outpaces growth in fossil fuels, but that dynamic varies from region to region. In Western Europe and China, policy, rapid demand growth and energy security considerations favour locally available resources such as wind, solar and battery storage, prompting more of these types of installations early in the projection period.

Natural gas and crude oil supply, consumption and trade patterns evolve in the projections to meet growing demand against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is assumed will continue to limit Russia’s exports to Western markets.

The Middle East and North America increase natural gas production and exports to meet growing demand, particularly in China, India, south-east Asia and Africa. ‘Across the cases we modelled, energy demand from China, India, south-east Asia and Africa will continue to support growth in global natural gas production,’ DeCarolis comments.