After reaching an all-time high in 2023, global coal demand is expected to decline towards 2026, according to the latest edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual coal market report: Coal 2023. This is the first time that the report has predicted a drop in global coal consumption over its forecast period.

The report sees global demand for coal rising by 1.4% this year, surpassing 8.5bn tonnes for the first time, although the global increase masks stark differences among regions. Consumption is on course to decline sharply in most advanced economies, including record drops in the EU and the US of around 20% each. However, demand in emerging and developing economies remains very strong, increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output.

Nevertheless, the report expects global coal demand to fall by 2.3% by 2026 compared with 2023 levels, even in the absence of governments implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies. This decline is set to be driven by the major expansion of renewable energy capacity coming online, says the IEA.

More than half of this global renewable capacity expansion is set to occur in China, which currently accounts for over half of the world’s demand for coal. As a result, Chinese coal demand is expected to fall in 2024 and plateau through 2026. That said, the outlook for coal in China will be significantly affected in the coming years by the pace of clean energy deployment, weather conditions, and structural shifts in the Chinese economy, adds the IEA.

Coal is currently the largest energy source for electricity generation, steelmaking and cement production, and also the biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions from human activity. Its projected decline would mark a historic turning point.  

However, global consumption is forecast to remain well over 8bn tonnes through 2026, according to the market report. To drive down emissions at a rate consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement, the use of unabated coal would need to fall significantly faster.

‘We have seen declines in global coal demand a few times, but they were brief and caused by extraordinary events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union or the COVID-19 crisis. This time appears different, as the decline is more structural, driven by the formidable and sustained expansion of clean energy technologies,’ said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. ‘A turning point for coal is clearly on the horizon.’

The report finds that the shift in both coal demand and production to Asia is accelerating. This year, China, India and Southeast Asia are set to account for three-quarters of global consumption, up from only about one-quarter in 1990. However, through 2026, India and Southeast Asia are the only regions where coal consumption is poised to grow significantly. In advanced economies, the expansion of renewables amid weak electricity demand growth is set to continue driving the structural decline of coal consumption.

Meanwhile, China, India and Indonesia – the three largest coal producers globally – are expected to break output records in 2023, pushing global production to a new high in 2023. These three countries now account for more than 70% of the world’s coal production.