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Call for action to safeguard critical minerals needed for net zero and to protect essential food crops
8/5/2024
News
More than 70% of the critical minerals regarded as crucial for the net zero energy transition are at risk from climate disruption. While at the same time, heat stress and droughts are putting much of the world’s staple food crops, including 90% of rice production, at ‘significant risk’, according to PwC.
Copper, cobalt and lithium have a key role to play in the clean energy transition, integral to electronics and used in batteries for electric vehicles, as well as in wind turbines and solar panels. However, PwC’s latest report, Climate risks to nine key commodities: Protecting people and prosperity, suggests that by 2050, even if the world sharply reduces its carbon emissions, over 70% of cobalt and lithium production could face significant, high, or extreme drought risk – up from near zero today. Less than 10% of copper production faces significant or greater drought risk today, rising to over half in a 2050 low emissions scenario and over 70% in a high emissions scenario.
The effect of climate change is not just limited to the energy sector; agriculture is also at risk. The report also states that rice, wheat and maize, which account for 42% of the calories people eat, face growing risks from both heat stress and drought. The most widespread and serious risk is to rice, around 90% of which will face significant or greater heat stress risk by 2050 in a high emissions scenario. Currently, over 75% of rice is grown in conditions of ‘significant’ or greater heat risk. Meanwhile, today around 1% of wheat and maize face significant drought risk, rising to more than 50% and 30% respectively in a 2050 high emissions scenario.
The PwC research also finds that other vital metals face increasing amounts of risk. In particular, over 60% of the world’s aluminium and iron production may face significant or greater heat stress risk by 2050, even in a low emissions scenario (up from 30–50% currently). In a high emissions scenario in 2050, 40% of the world’s zinc production may face significant or greater drought risk.
Production of all nine critical commodities assessed in the report is concentrated in a limited number of countries – many of which face increasing climate risks.
Some 47% of CEOs are taking proactive measures to safeguard their workforces and physical assets, according to PwC’s 2024 Annual Global CEO Survey. However, more needs to be done if the global economy is to adapt to climate risk. The report recommends:
- Enhance resilience by identifying and managing risks throughout the supply chain.
- Capitalise on the opportunities to deliver products, services or business models that help companies and communities adapt.
- Join forces with stakeholders from governments to communities to shape collaborative outcomes and enhance adaptation at a policy and systemic level.
Will Jackson-Moore, Global Sustainability Leader, PwC UK, concludes: ‘Many locations that produce essential commodities are likely to experience more frequent spells of intense drought and heat stress by 2050, even in an optimistic low emissions scenario. To avoid economic losses and protect communities and ecosystems, producers and the broader business community should understand the impact of climate disruption on production and engage in multi-stakeholder efforts to adapt. This will also strengthen efforts to more rapidly transition to a net zero economy.’
