New Energy World™
New Energy World™ embraces the whole energy industry as it connects and converges to address the decarbonisation challenge. It covers progress being made across the industry, from the dynamics under way to reduce emissions in oil and gas, through improvements to the efficiency of energy conversion and use, to cutting-edge initiatives in renewable and low-carbon technologies.
Global energy transition needs to accelerate: latest DNV transition outlook reports
5/3/2025
10 min read
Feature
The global energy transition is ‘truly’ underway but needs to speed up, while greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to peak this year, according to DNV’s 2024 Energy Transition Outlook. ‘This is a milestone for humanity, but we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline,’ says DNV. ‘Worryingly, our forecast decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets.’ It’s a similar challenge in the UK. New Energy World Features Editor Brian Davis reports from the joint FT.com and DNV report launch in London in February.
According to DNV’s ‘most likely’ energy transition scenario: 'Global warming will hit 2.2°C by the close of the century. This is some way off the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target.’
It’s a grim prediction. However, the situation could be worse. Solar installations surged globally by 80% to 400 GW in 2024 because battery prices are plunging, ‘making 24-hour solar plus storage more accessible, as battery prices fell 14% last year, with lower prices to come’. Furthermore, electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to become cheaper too, in line with DNV’s prediction that 50% of new passenger vehicles will be electric by 2031.
Record EV sales in China are slowing petroleum demand, while solar installations are finally edging out coal in the country’s power sector. However, exports of clean tech from China may be facing a severe tariff backlash. China now dominates the manufacture of almost all key clean technologies, accounting for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new EV purchases.