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What’s the latest outlook for the energy transition? BP and DNV forecasts compared
15/10/2025
10 min read
Feature
The last four weeks saw publication of two authoritative energy transition outlook reports. Although BP’s 2025 energy outlook favours a scenario approach, considering the ‘current trajectory’ and a greener approach keeping ‘below 2°C’ by 2050, DNV issued a more specific forecast. Common findings include delays in progress towards global net zero, increasing electricity demand and more emphasis on energy security. New Energy World Features Editor Brian Davis reports.
The impact of geopolitical tensions was emphasised in both reports, given the Ukraine war and Middle East conflict as well as the increasing use of sanctions and tariffs. These and other global factors are ‘refocusing energy tension on energy security’, said BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale in his wide-ranging introduction to the BP 2025 Energy Outlook.
For its part, the ninth edition of DNV’s 2025 Energy Transition Outlook considers that the global shift towards cleaner energy ‘remains robust’, even though the pace of the energy transition in the US has slowed sharply due to recent policy reversals. However, Sverre Alvik, DNV Vice President and Director of the Energy Transition Outlook predicts that ‘the US slowdown will have only a marginal effect on worldwide progress [in the energy transition] as momentum builds elsewhere’.
Both reports anticipate ‘exponential growth’ in data centres to support growing appetite for artificial intelligence (AI) but differ in their estimates of power consumption.