New Energy World™
New Energy World™ embraces the whole energy industry as it connects and converges to address the decarbonisation challenge. It covers progress being made across the industry, from the dynamics under way to reduce emissions in oil and gas, through improvements to the efficiency of energy conversion and use, to cutting-edge initiatives in renewable and low-carbon technologies.
Brazil’s energy paradox: oil, gas and the road to COP30
5/11/2025
10 min read
Feature
Next week, Brazil will host COP30. The country is one of the world’s top 10 oil producers and is the latest member of OPEC+. It is also a nation where more than 80% of electricity generation comes from renewable sources. This dual identity – a liberal energy market underpinned by vast hydrocarbon reserves and a growing clean power mix – defines Brazil’s complex energy strategy. Charlie Bush reports.
The country faces the challenge of maintaining economic growth through expanding oil and gas production while upholding its leadership in climate diplomacy. But the strategy runs contrary to 1.5°C net zero scenarios, which concur that declines in demand for fossil fuels mean that no new long-lead-time oil and gas projects are needed, since they risk ‘locking in’ hydrocarbons and pushing global warming well beyond safe levels.
Brazil’s energy mix remains among the cleanest globally, with hydropower, biofuels, and a growing share of wind and solar energy meeting most of its domestic electricity demand. Yet oil and gas continue to dominate export revenues and underpin the trade balance. According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, hydrocarbons represent more than 44% of Brazil’s primary energy supply, and offshore pre-salt fields now account for nearly 80% of national production.
The nation’s position as both a fossil fuel exporter and a climate champion presents an intricate balancing act. On one hand, Brazil joined OPEC+ earlier this year, signalling a willingness to cooperate with other major producers. It plans to expand oil and gas production by over 20% by 2030, with pre-salt fields expected to drive output to an estimated 4.4mn b/d by 2034. On the other, Brazil’s government is committed to achieving net zero by 2050, with remarkable recent progress in reducing deforestation and expanding renewable generation.