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China’s 2025 emissions continue 18-month flat or falling trend
18/2/2026
News
4Q2025 marked the seventh quarter in a row (since March 2024) that China’s total CO2 emissions were flat or falling, according to a new report by Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), and published in Carbon Brief.
In the October–December period, CO2 emissions fell by 1%, which means that for 2025 as a whole they were likely to have fallen by 0.3%, according to the report. Over the year, emissions fell 7% in cement, 3% in transport and the metals industry, and 1.5% in power, but rose 12% in the chemical industry.
Overall, the industry’s emissions figures are finely balanced, he writes.
China is the world’s biggest emitter, accounting for about a third of total global emissions.
Within the power sector, emissions from fossil fuels were nearly flat; they grew by 0.1%. Growth in capacity from new additions of low-carbon power, comprising 360 TWh of solar, 130 TWh of wind and 40 TWh of nuclear, exceeded electricity demand growth of 520 TWh, according to the report. However, the author cites a rise in curtailment due to grid congestion as generation capacity growth exceeded power generation.
In the year, growth in energy storage capacity grew by 75 GW compared to 2024, which for the first time exceeded growth in peak demand (55 GW). In January, China’s National Development and Reform Commission announced that energy storage sites will be eligible for capacity payment previously only offered to coal and gas-fired power and pumped hydro. That means storage is likely to continue to grow, writes Myllyvirta.
In 2025, gas-fired power generation rose by 6%, but coal-fired power generation fell by 1.9%. The year also saw record additions in coal and gas-fired power.
Despite the lack of growth in overall figures, China’s progress is still too limited to meet either its Paris Agreement objectives or the target for its 14th year plan, the report notes. The 15th year plan is to be published in March 2026.
US President Donald Trump reversed a landmark policy from the Obama-era which underpinned federal actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions – under the so-called 'endangerment finding', focused on curbing ICE (internal combusion engine) vehicle emissions in particular. The White House claims the reversal move is 'the most significant deregulation in American history' and claims it will bring down the costs for automakers. Environmental groups see this initiative as the largest roll-back on climate change yet attempted, and are set to challenge it in the courts.
The full report is available at https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/
