This is my last comment article as one of the team at New Energy World; I’ve been writing occasional pieces here for three years, but I’m moving on. Before this, I wrote monthly opinion articles as Editor of Energy World, the predecessor to New Energy World, for more years than I care to remember. And, despite enormous changes to the shape of the industry over those years, I hope I have learned something about what is truly important in the big energy picture; particularly about the energy transition that is supposed to rescue the world from climate disaster.

In my energy world, the future lies almost solely with massive expansion of renewables+storage around the world, and further progress on energy efficiency. Much of this is happening, of course, but not fast enough and, meanwhile, the necessary journey away from fossil fuels has barely begun. From a climate change point of view, it’s not enough that renewables supply just the growth in energy demand.

To give this a bit of focus, I attended the first day of International Energy Week in London two weeks ago and saw two presentations which illustrate these points.

First, Catherine MacGregor, CEO of French energy company Engie (stated purpose: ‘To accelerate the transition towards a carbon-neutral economy through reduced energy consumption and more environmentally friendly solutions.’). She ran through what a company at one end of the transition spectrum is doing. Engie, which deals in everything from renewable electricity, through batteries to gas transmission and distribution networks, in 30 countries around the world, aims to decarbonise its own operations by 2045.

MacGregor spoke of a giant, 1.5 GW solar project the company is building in the United Arab Emirates, and of the latest advances in battery technology which should allow solar schemes to offer something akin to 24-hour energy quite soon. Fossil gas is still a big part of the company, said MacGregor, adding that gas will continue to be important for decades to come. But Engie is increasingly moving, partly due to pressure from its customers, into biomethane.

Asked if she thought a future energy supply picture of 95% renewables+storage, with 5% gas was feasible, Macgregor said ‘Yes’.

The opening presentation was given by the CEO of Shell, Wael Sawan, who emphasised the continued importance, well into the future, of the ‘energy of today’ (fossil fuels, notably gas), alongside the ‘energy of the future’ (renewables). The former acts, he said, as a ‘stabilising force’ alongside variable renewables that every country needs, given rising demand from growing AI and more middle-class lifestyles.

Shell currently aims to increase its LNG supplies by 4–5% per year, said Sawan. Asked if the world could then be facing an LNG glut, with concomitant low prices in the future, he added that low prices are not a problem – look at the demand growth that these would stimulate.

Comparing the two speakers, one sees a rapid replacement of fossil fuels with renewables; the other sees coexistence of both. Asked if Shell is still heading towards net zero by 2050, Sawan hedged his bets – yes, but the company cannot be divorced from a world in which green energy has only come from government-regulated markets so far, and most of this just in China. Quite a gap, then, between these two views broadcast on the same day from the same stage.

There are signs that the once unbreakable link between global economies and carbon emissions has been loosened, and the rate of rate of growth of global CO₂ emissions has slowed in recent years, but emissions growth needs to go negative, rather than slow down.

So, where have my years of observing the energy industry left me?

First – it’s obvious – energy is enormously important, across the globe in all sorts of ways. Both in positive ways, fuelling nearly all human activities and driving development. And negatively, due to polluting by-products; most seriously those being the main cause of global climate change.

Second – it’s a diverse and fascinating industry; particularly in its developing technologies but also in how these are used. Nothing stands still in the energy world and the pace of change is quickening, sometimes confusingly so. Energy is an excellent home for aspiring young engineers.

Third – to date, the world has made almost no progress in cutting the carbon emissions from energy, leading to dramatic and worsening climate events around the world, shifting crop patterns and the emergence of climate refugees. The carbon emissions graph just keeps rising, and as does the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere.

There are signs that the once unbreakable link between global economic growth and increasing carbon emissions has been loosened, and the rate of rate of growth of global CO₂ emissions has slowed in recent years. But emissions growth needs to go negative, rather than slow down, and soon. Most watchers agree that the global climate has already reached the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPPC) target of 1.5°C above pre-industrialisation levels.

This has to change – for the sake of our descendants if not for us.

What’s not working – what’s getting in the way – is the failure by national governments either alone or in international groups to effect a reduction in fossil fuel use. Despite setting ambitious carbon reduction targets, efforts by governments have been thwarted by intense lobbying of powerful fossil fuel groups. From US oil’s work in the 1960s to conceal research (which concluded that burning oil and gas would eventually cause severe changes to the climate) – to the contemporary failure of oil producers to change direction away from seeking and developing new fields. Some of these have production lives well beyond 2050, by which the world is supposed to be at net zero.

My three-decade career in energy so far has seen the birth of a fabulous renewable energy industry; progress in energy efficiency that sent traditional energy demand growth into reverse in many places, although all the talk now is of demand growth again. But it hasn’t yet seen the start of the necessary global move away – given the urgency of climate change – from coal, oil and gas.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.

• Further reading: ‘Smoke on the horizon – time to get radical with the energy transition’. When we might see reductions in fossil fuel use as well as growth in greener alternatives?
• ‘Where are you on the energy transition spectrum?’ We live in strange times, with dissent over how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – and whether this is important at all – breaking out in the US and elsewhere. Is a clean energy future inevitable, and is it arriving soon?