Industry body Ocean Energy Europe (OEE) described the tidal tender as the ‘last missing piece to trigger the industrialisation of the sector’. The announcement follows the UK’s fourth allocation round for tidal projects earlier this month, which awarded 140 MW of support at a strike price of £265/MWh.  

‘This means Europe is now the first continent to industrialise tidal energy, a game-changer for the sector and the future of Europe’s energy supply,’ OEE said.

According to the association, tidal technology has moved beyond proof-of-concept. The first pilot farms were deployed in 2015 and 2016 in Scotland, the Netherlands and France.  

Large-scale tenders, OEE argues, are critical to unlocking private capital. While the EU has long backed ocean energy through programmes such as Horizon Europe and the Innovation Fund, it says national revenue visibility has been the missing financing component, until now.  

Deployments at 250 MW scale are expected to catalyse mass manufacturing, drive standardisation and reduce costs – replicating the trajectory seen in offshore wind and solar PV. With ocean machines developed, built and assembled in Europe, OEE forecasts substantial local job creation across coastal regions.

PPE3: a recalibrated decarbonisation trajectory

The tidal announcement sits within the broader framework of France’s PPE3, which defines priority actions to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. As law firm Bracewell explains, each PPE spans two consecutive five-year periods. PPE3 covers 2025–2035 and will undergo a mandatory review in 2030.

Compared with earlier drafts, PPE3 outlines a revised decarbonisation trajectory, according to Bracewell. The share of decarbonised energy in final energy consumption is set to rise from 42% in 2023 to 60% by 2030. This implies a phase-down in fossil fuels from 58% in 2023 to around 40% by the end of the decade, driven primarily by electrification and the expansion of renewable heat networks, including biogas, geothermal and district heating.

Electricity’s share in final energy consumption is projected to increase from 27% in 2023 to 34% by 2030 and potentially 39% by 2035. The government characterises this as a ‘reasonably optimistic’ electrification scenario, underpinned by electric vehicle uptake, heat pump deployment, industrial electrification and growing demand from data centres – despite currently flat electricity demand.

Notably, PPE3 frames its capacity targets as ‘indicative and adaptable ceilings’, says Bracewell. This allows the government to reduce support volumes in cases of overcapacity or weaker-than-expected demand growth. The law firm warns that such provisions may introduce uncertainty for investors and lenders by limiting long-term visibility on support volumes and potentially complicating project financing decisions.

Solar targets trimmed

In solar, PPE3 sets a target of 48 GW of installed capacity by 2030, compared to around 31 GW at the end of 2025, and 55–80 GW by 2035. However, Bracewell describes these figures as a material reduction compared with earlier draft trajectories discussed in 2023–2024.

The 48 GW objective aligns with transmission system operator RTE’s ‘R3 rapid decarbonisation’ scenario, according to the law firm. Between 2025 and 2030, the net addition required is around 17 GW, equating to an average of 3.4 GW per year. With approximately 10 GW already considered ready-to-build, only around 7 GW would need to be effectively deployed over the five-year period, notes Bracewell.

It says this represents a moderate slowdown compared with the 5 GW annual pace observed in 2024–2025. Bracewell attributes the recalibration to weaker electricity demand and increasing price cannibalisation effects in the wholesale market, adding that it marks a significant contraction relative to earlier policy ambitions and could dampen new project development.

Wind ambitions moderated

Onshore wind capacity is targeted at 35–40 GW by 2035, down from a previous objective of 45 GW. The shift signals ‘a clear prioritisation of repowering existing sites over large-scale greenfield expansion’, suggests Bracewell.

Offshore wind ambitions have also been adjusted. PPE3 sets a 15 GW target by 2035, compared with an earlier 18 GW goal. The law firm notes that the reduction is ‘presented as a calendar shift rather than a structural scaling back of ambition, with tenders 9 and 10 expected to be spread over a longer timeframe’.

Nevertheless, the recalibration raises questions about alignment with France’s broader European commitments. France remains a signatory to the North Sea Energy Cooperation objective of reaching 300 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2050. A slower domestic trajectory could prompt scrutiny over consistency between external pledges and internal planning, warns Bracewell.

Pro-nuclear pivot

PPE3 also marks ‘a pronounced pro-nuclear shift’, according to Bracewell. Annual nuclear generation targets are increased to 380–420 TWh between 2030 and 2035, up from the previous 360–400 TWh range. The strategy formally abandons the earlier objective under PPE2 of shutting down 14 reactors.

Six new EPR2 reactors remain planned, with an estimated cost of around €73bn. However, final investment decisions depend on European Commission approval of the associated State aid scheme. First commissioning is not expected before 2038, meaning new EPR2 units will not contribute to the 2035 targets.

France’s third Multiannual Energy Programme - Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Energie, PPE3 – can be viewed here.