The transition is currently not fast enough to meet the 2030 Clean Power target, the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) or the 2050 pledge, according to the report. Emissions are forecast to reduce by 33% by 2035, which is approximately half of the requirement for the NDC. This aligns with a recent report from analyst Wood Mackenzie, which shows the UK must close a 12% gap by 2030 – requiring an additional £75bn in accelerated investment this decade – to meet its climate goals.  

‘The UK is making undeniable progress in transforming its energy system, continuing to cement its place as a world leader in decarbonisation, but the pace is not yet aligned with climate ambitions,’ said Hari Vamadevan, Senior Vice President and Regional Director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems, DNV. Vamadevan noted that the forecast now shows the UK running on ‘clean electrons by 2060’.  

Wood Mackenzie similarly highlights that while the UK has successfully halved energy-related emissions since 1990, the country has now reached ‘crunch time’, when nearly all 2030 transition targets are slipping out of reach.

Fossil fuels will represent 15% of the primary energy supply by 2060, a reduction from 75% today. Today, natural gas is 40% of primary energy supply – by 2060, this will reduce to about 8%, and 15% of that will be biomethane. DNV’s report also estimates that 14bn boe will still be required between now and 2060. Wood Mackenzie further notes that a ban on North Sea exploration has locked in a structural dependence on imports – by 2035, domestic production is expected to meet only 47% of oil demand and 21% of gas demand.

According to DNV, the 2030 Clean Power target will likely be missed as the UK continues to rely on unabated gas. While the country is expected to reach 107 GW of variable renewable capacity by 2030, the report estimates that the UK will still rely on unabated gas-fired generation for 15% of its electricity needs (reduced from 41% in 2023).  

Wood Mackenzie’s findings echo these predictions, projecting that gas will still generate 22% of the UK’s electricity in 2030 and 10% in 2035. It also expects that offshore wind capacity will increase from 17 GW today to more than 90 GW by 2060. Onshore wind installed capacity could increase nearly six-fold to 95 GW in 2060. However, Wood Mackenzie cautions that offshore wind deployment currently lags 20% behind government targets due to project delays and commercial constraints.

DNV states that the country requires ‘whole system thinking’ to address these gaps. ‘It is not a case of renewables versus oil and gas, it is not supply versus demand, and it is not generation versus transmission – it is all these facets combined to drive a cleaner energy future,’ stated Vamadevan. He cautioned that focusing narrowly on individual elements rather than the whole system risks stalling progress.

In the DNV report, buildings and transport are identified as the primary sectors blocking rapid decarbonisation. By 2035, two-thirds of UK homes are predicted to still use gas boilers. Furthermore, more than half of the cars on the road are expected to remain fossil-fuelled by that same year.  

Wood Mackenzie confirms this slow evolution, noting that transport still accounts for 72% of oil demand, while residential and agricultural sectors represent over half of gas demand.

Electricity demand from data centres is forecast to rise from 8 TWh today to 70 TWh by 2060. Total electricity generation demand is expected to grow by 15% by 2030, rising from 320 TWh/y to 370 TWh/y.  

DNV’s report highlights that by 2060, the UK will operate a fundamentally different energy system: renewables supported by nuclear will provide the vast majority of electricity, meeting 60% of final energy demand, and energy imports will reduce to just 15% of the total demand.

Sarah Kimpton, DNV’s Energy Transition Director and report co-author, said: ‘Addressing the energy trilemma and balancing the energy system demands integrated solutions that span technology, infrastructure, policy and behaviour.’ She added that Allocation Round 7 (AR7) demonstrated the ‘art of the possible’ when policy and business objectives align – a total of 14.7 GW was awarded across all renewable projects in this round. Kimpton noted that this success was due to ‘connected government policy and business objectives’.

Despite its prediction that the UK will miss its targets, DNV notes the UK remains a global leader in decarbonisation and in addition is moving faster than most other major economies. ‘If you compare the results to our global report, you will find the UK is much further ahead,’ Vamadevan said, with Kimpton adding, ‘we’ve had a 50% reduction in emissions already since 1990, so it’s not all bad’.

Regarding the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on these energy goals, Vamadevan acknowledged that ‘there will be very significant short-term consequences on the energy system’ and that ‘there will be shocks to the price of oil and gas’.  

The Wood Mackenzie report also said that geopolitical tensions and a ‘new world order’ are shifting focus towards domestic resilience and national security. ‘Defence spending and cost-of-living concerns are pulling resources away from climate initiatives and the climate-motivated energy transition is losing urgency. Yet domestic low-carbon energy has become central to UK autonomy and global influence, creating a strategic imperative that extends beyond emissions targets.’

DNV’s Vamadevan added: ‘I've been working in the energy sector for over 35 years and volatility of energy prices is not new.’ He agreed that the Middle East crisis could fundamentally shift the focus of the transition toward domestic resilience, noting that the war in the Middle East will bring resilience and security into sharp focus. However, he and Kimpton both suggested that such geopolitical events typically do not derail long-term decarbonisation, with Kimpton observing that ‘it is massive locally... but in terms of a global perspective, and in terms of our forecast, it really didn’t make a significant difference, because we’re looking in the long term’.  

Read the full reports: DNV's Energy Transition Outlook UK 2026, published March 2026, and Wood Mackenzie’s United Kingdom Energy Transition Outlook 2025.