However, analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) says that the new plan lacks the binding targets that would ensure emissions decline before 2030.  

The think-tank notes that China currently stands at a ‘critical juncture’, with emissions growth slowing as renewable energy increasingly meets new electricity demand. It adds that there is still a large pipeline of new coal power projects under development and progress in industrial decarbonisation has been ‘limited’.

Clean energy expansion remains central

Despite these concerns, the plan places heavy emphasis on clean energy as both a climate solution and a driver of economic growth, says CREA.

A new action plan aims to double the use of non-fossil energy over a 10-year period. If interpreted as doubling total non-fossil consumption between 2025 and 2035, the goal could prove more ambitious than China’s existing targets of 25% non-fossil energy by 2030 and 30% by 2035, suggests CREA.

The plan also reiterates the previous five-year plan’s goal of building a ‘new-type power system’ capable of integrating large volumes of variable wind and solar power. Key components include large-scale energy storage, smart grids, interprovincial electricity trading and expanded long-distance transmission.

Battery energy storage is expected to expand rapidly, alongside 100 GW of pumped-hydro storage capacity.

Beyond electricity generation, the plan identifies hydrogen and nuclear fusion as potential future growth sectors, reports CREA. Hydrogen development will focus on building infrastructure and integrating the fuel into industrial processes, transport and energy systems.

China also intends to continue developing large renewable-energy bases, including the desert mega-projects in the country’s north-west that have driven solar and wind growth over the past five years. The new plan also highlights projects in hydropower-rich south-western provinces that combine solar, wind and hydroelectric generation.

However, CREA notes that the plan provides limited detail on the scale of renewable expansion required in the near term. It notes that China has already surpassed its previous target of 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity, reaching the milestone in 2024. A longer-term goal of 3,600 GW by 2035 implies average additions of about 200 GW/y, says the think-tank.

CREA adds that if electricity demand continues to grow rapidly – particularly due to electrification and expanding manufacturing – annual additions closer to 300 GW may be needed to maintain progress toward China’s climate goals.

Carbon intensity target raises questions

CREA suggests the new five-year plan sets a less strict carbon intensity target than for the previous five years, potentially allowing emissions to increase over the period 2026–2030. Instead, it says the plan focuses on accelerating the deployment of clean energy and related technologies, with the expectation that falling costs and expanding supply will eventually drive emissions downward rather than focusing on strong, measurable emission targets.  

CREA argues that the new 17% carbon intensity reduction target is weaker than what would be required to keep China on track with its international climate commitments of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It is also slightly lower than the 18% reduction target set for the previous five-year plan covering 2021–2025.

According to CREA’s analysis of official statistics, China’s annual carbon-intensity improvements during 2021–2025 add up to a reduction of about 12.4%, leaving the country behind the trajectory needed to meet the pledge made by President Xi in 2021 to reduce carbon intensity to a figure which is 65% below the 2005 level by 2030.  

However, the new plan states that carbon intensity fell by 17.7% over the past five years. CREA says the difference appears to result from China’s revisions to historical data rather than a sudden improvement in emissions performance. The definition of carbon intensity has also been broadened under the new plan to include industrial emissions alongside energy-related emissions, which could make reductions appear larger, particularly as cement production declines alongside China’s struggling real-estate sector, suggests CREA.

The implications are significant. ‘The 12.4% carbon intensity drop reported in annual statistical communiques, combined with reported GDP growth, implies that CO₂ emissions went up by 13% from 2020 to 2025. Whereas if carbon intensity fell 17.7%, then that implies that emissions only went up 6%,’ explains CREA.

According to the think-tank, the 17% carbon intensity reduction target could see China’s CO₂ emissions increase by roughly 3–6% between 2026 and 2030 if economic growth averaged around 4.5–5% per year.

For 2026 alone, the plan’s 3.8% carbon-intensity reduction target could allow emissions to grow by roughly 0.5–1% under similar economic conditions, it notes.

CREA adds that the plan describes 2026 as the first year of China’s transition from controlling total energy consumption to controlling carbon emissions. However, the document includes only an intensity target and no cap on total emissions, leaving uncertainty over how the new system will work in practice, it says.

[Last year, as reported in New Energy World, China set new 2035 targets to reduce absolute, economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% from peak levels.]

Mixed signals on coal

Another area highlighted by CREA is the plan’s ambiguous language around coal. The draft calls for ‘promoting the peaking of coal and oil consumption’, which CREA says represents a step back from earlier statements by President Xi that suggested coal use would gradually decline.

Instead of committing to a reduction, the plan appears to target a plateau instead, reports CREA, ‘specifically leaving space for coal consumption in the power and chemical sectors to grow past the targeted peak of overall coal consumption’. It also says the plan did not confirm earlier suggestions by Chinese state media that coal consumption would peak by 2027 and oil by 2026.

The document also refers to ‘strengthening the clean and efficient utilisation of fossil energy’, wording that CREA says is often associated with continued development of the coal-to-chemicals industry, one of the more carbon-intensive parts of China’s industrial sector.

Furthermore, while the plan mentions replacing 30mn tonnes of coal consumption each year with cleaner alternatives, CREA notes that this figure is relatively small compared with China’s overall coal use, which is more than 100 times bigger at about 3.17bn tonnes in 2025.

The think-tank also highlights the absence of binding caps on coal use in the power sector or a clear timeline for phasing out older coal plants. Previous five-year plans included language calling for ‘reasonable control’ over coal power expansion, but that wording is missing from the new draft, it says.  

New push for industrial decarbonisation

The plan also introduces several initiatives aimed at reducing emissions in industry and transport.

One major proposal is the development of zero-carbon industrial parks, where factories would be powered directly by clean electricity and supplied with green hydrogen.

Another initiative is the creation of zero-carbon transport corridors along major freight and passenger routes. These would feature extensive fast-charging and battery-swapping infrastructure to support electrified vehicles.

CREA says these measures signal growing momentum in efforts to decarbonise sectors beyond power generation.

To read CREA’s analysis in full, go to https://energyandcleanair.org/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-implications-for-climate-and-energy-transition/