At the EI’s International Energy Week 2026, Dev Sanyal, CEO VAROPreem, said: ‘The only thing we can predict is that the future will be unpredictable.’  

Arriving at CERAWeek less than two months later, this comment felt prophetic. In that time the world has been plunged into the largest energy crisis for decades, impacting all the Gulf states and interrupting global energy flows following the US/Israeli attack on Iran and the inevitable digging in and lashing out of Iran.  

I have been to CERAWeek many times as Upstream Director of Shell and Galp CEO, but this year my badge said President of the Energy Institute. I was amazed at the how the conference had grown (10,000 attendees) and also the consistent high quality of the speakers.  

The conference had been built around the theme of convergence and competition. There was a distinctly US flavour, with an upbeat mood, celebrating US energy dominance, anticipating a resurgence of Venezuelan output, but also acknowledgment of the massive growth of AI and the impact data centres are having on prices, the grid and generation.  

This certainly was a strong theme, and as US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum called it, winning the ‘AI arms race’ was central to US ambitions, where access to abundant, affordable energy was fundamental to AI. Chris Wright, US Secretary for Energy, talked up the strength of US oil and gas production, pointing to the record levels of supply to keep the lights on through the massive Fern winter storm in January. When challenged, the two Secretaries dismissed the current energy market crisis as temporary.  

The CEOs who spoke included Shell’s Wael Sawan and Patrick Pouyanne of TotalEnergies. They were more realistic around the depth of the crisis. Their focus was first and foremost on the safety of their people. Sawan updated the audience on the damage to the Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) plan in Qatar, where one of the two trains was damaged by an Iranian drone, which will take 1–2 years to repair. I spent a decade of my life leading the development of that project, handing over my role to Wael Sawan to lead operations in 2012, so for both of us, the attack was personal.  

While media reports have tended to focus predominantly on constrained oil production through the Strait of Hormuz, it was pointed out that whereas this may be just 10% of global oil production, it is however 20% of internationally traded oil. The lack of LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also represents 20% of global flows.   

Secondary measures and impacts like the ban on oil product exports from China has magnified the crisis in jet fuel and diesel; the former is being sold at $250/b in some places. Shortages also impact products like fertiliser feedstocks, or even helium: 40% of the world supply, which is essential for computer chip manufacture, comes from Qatar.   

The CEOs reflected that the first impact we will see is on prices, but physical flows and shortages which have started in Asia will swing to Europe in the coming months. 

Another dominant theme was around the damaging impact of regulation on impeding energy flows. The US congratulated itself on how approvals had been sped up, but there was universal criticism of European regulation. The blame was put firmly at the door of the European Union (EU) in Brussels. As Pouyanne reflected, if you set up an organisation whose sole purpose is to regulate, you will get regulation! Even Katherina Reiche, Germany’s Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, joined the throng criticising the EU. She was determined to drive down energy prices in Germany through deregulation.   

Geopolitical polarisation 

Often it is what is not said that speaks more than what is said. The complete absence of Chinese companies, or any discussion about the progress China has made in creating an advanced electrostate was extraordinary. It shows how geopolitically polarised discussions on energy are becoming between the East and West.   

In addition, there was hardly any mention of climate change, and any sense that energy leaders need to urgently address the impact of fossil fuels on the climate. Climate change is clearly on the back burner versus energy access and affordability. This is disturbing.  

The complete absence of Chinese companies [at CERAWeek], or any discussion about the progress China has made in creating an advanced electrostate… shows how geopolitically polarised discussions on energy are becoming between the East and West. 

What lies ahead 

As for what happens in the coming months, amongst delegates there was near universal despair for a quick resolution to hostilities in the Gulf. While one may think oil and gas executives would be relishing the higher prices, the inevitable demand destruction and governments’ imposition of windfall taxes would make any celebration short lived.   

The Middle East experts universally thought Iran now held a strong hand. The most prescient relevant quote went like this: ‘If Iran doesn’t lose, it wins, and if the US doesn’t win, it loses,’ meaning any kind of stalemate favours the Iranians.  

A high point for me was listening to Venezuelan opposition politician Maria Corina Machado (who was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize). She provided a very compelling story of her plans if she gets voted in as President. She outlined a new petroleum law, with attractive fiscal terms and legal protection, with equity participation. Her plan is that state oil company PDVSA would not be too involved, as she wanted the development of oil and gas in international hands. The prospect for western international oil companies, which are short of reserves, being given access to 300bn barrels of resources is game changing for them.  

On my way to the airport back home, I passed service stations advertising diesel prices above $5/g (£1/l); [in the UK diesel prices are nearing £1.80/l]. This could lead quickly to public dissatisfaction with the consequences of war in the US. It is hard to understand how the political leaders will be able to continue to normalise the energy world. The future surely is unpredictable!    

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.  

• Further reading: ‘Years of repairs loom over Middle East oil and gas facilities after only weeks of hostilities’. Damage to oil and gas facilities from the Iran-US/Israel war will take years to repair and cost billions, according to early reports from market analysts Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie. 
• ‘The new energy trilemma – why national security is reshaping the global energy transition’. The energy transition is unfolding in a complex strategic environment, defined by geopolitical competition, supply chain fragmentation, technological rivalry and climate-related disruption.