The shock announcement came following weeks of missile and drone attacks by Iran (which is also a member of OPEC) following the start of the conflict in late February. The UAE is the third largest oil producer in the organisation, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but has been unable to export production via the Strait of Hormuz following its closure as hostilities intensified. In 2025 it produced 3.12mn b/d, compared to 9.48mn b/d for Saudi Arabia, 3.77mn b/d for Iraq, 3.26mn b/d for Iran and 2.47mn b/d for Kuwait, according to OPEC's Annual Statistical Bulletin 2026 published in late April 2026. The UAE's portion corresponded to 11% of OPEC’s entire declaration of cooperation output in the year.

The UAE Oil Ministry said the decision to exit OPEC was in the national interest, following a review of its production policy and capacity. It added that the UAE remained committed to market stability and would continue to cooperate with producers and consumers to that end. The ministry also noted that the UAE’s departure from OPEC would provide it with more flexibility to respond to market dynamics.

Although UAE oil export has been constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it also controls a 1.5mn b/d-capacity pipeline from the Habshan onshore field in Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, outside of the Strait of Hormuz.

Commenting on the announcement, Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, said: ‘OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as the members’ willingness to hold barrels back from the market, and the UAE was one of those. Losing a member with 4.8mn b/d of capacity, and the ambition to produce more [5mn b/d by 2027], takes a real tool out of the group’s hands.’ 

He continued: ‘The timing tells you something about where the oil market is going. With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table. Saudi Arabia is now left doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability, and the market loses one of the few shock absorbers it had left.’

The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ marks a significant shift for the oil-producer group. Alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity, the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence and responds to supply shocks. Its departure therefore removes one of the core pillars underpinning OPEC’s ability to manage the market, according to Rystad Energy.

The UAE joined OPEC in 1967, seven years after the oil cartel was first established by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The organisation was set up to manage the supply of oil to avoid price volatility and ensure a steady income, rather than leaving price determination solely to market demand or corporate decisions. The number of countries in OPEC has fluctuated over the years, with other countries leaving the cartel including Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia and Qatar.

Following the UAE’s departure, 11 countries will remain OPEC members – Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and the Republic of the Congo, in addition to the five founding members. There are an additional 10 non-OPEC members in the wider OPEC+ alliance, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.