GE Vernova, Siemens Gamesa and Vestas have historically dominated Western offshore turbine supply. However, following GE Vernova’s pause on new offshore wind orders following a series of technical and operational setbacks, Siemens Gamesa and Vestas now account for most of the turbines available to European developers.

Rystad Energy’s analysis shows turbine selling prices rising by between 40% and 45% since 2020, outpacing manufacturing cost increases of 20% to 25% over the same period.

The report identifies the nacelle – which houses the generator, gearbox and power electronics that convert wind into electricity – as sitting at the centre of current supply constraints. Similar pressures are emerging in blade manufacturing, driven by increasing turbine sizes, longer production cycles and the logistical demands of transporting and installing next-generation components.  

The report warns that critical components are becoming increasingly concentrated. ‘If Europe doesn’t meaningfully expand manufacturing capacity or rethink how supply constraints are addressed in its auction frameworks, it won't deliver its post-2030 targets at the pace or cost the energy transition requires,’ noted Sander Baksjoberget, Senior Analyst, Offshore Wind Research.

Turbine technology has also shifted rapidly since 2020. Earlier years were dominated by smaller 9–10 MW turbines, while more recent deliveries are shifting towards the larger 14–15 MW class. Siemens Gamesa was the first to move into bigger turbines, signing contracts for its 14-MW model ahead of Vestas before moving into the 15-MW class, while Vestas’ V236-15-MW grew in popularity from 2024 onwards. Siemens Gamesa remains the largest supplier by delivered volume in recent years.

Rystad notes that the rise in turbine size is important context for understanding price increases: the turbines being built and installed today are significantly larger and more complex than those from five years ago, and that complexity is reflected in what original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) can charge.

The 40–45% rise in turbine selling prices since 2020 is not solely driven by input costs, the report says. Many contracts signed in 2020–2021 were based on stable cost assumptions, leaving manufacturers to absorb inflation during 2021–2023. As those contracts expired from 2023 onwards, pricing has reset higher, shifting more cost pressure on to developers.

The report adds that while developers continue to anchor project economics, turbine manufacturers are now in a stronger position to pass through cost increases via new contracts, although profitability across offshore divisions remains under pressure from scaling next-generation turbine production.

Rystad Energy also models a scenario in which a 30% rise in selected input costs would increase total manufacturing costs by around 17%, reflecting how different components are exposed to varying cost drivers.

UK needs 5 GW of offshore wind every year to stay on track for government goals
The tightening European supply chain comes as a new Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) report estimates that the UK needs to accelerate offshore wind deployment to deliver at least 5 GW each year to stay on track with its targets.

The report warns that while offshore wind remains one of the UK’s biggest success stories, progress is starting to slow at a critical moment.

OEUK says the government should aim to award up to 7 GW of offshore wind in the next renewables auction (AR8). This would allow the UK to meet the minimum need of 5 GW a year while making sure projects remain affordable compared with electricity prices and other renewable technologies.

However, new projects will not deliver power unless the electricity grid keeps pace. OEUK says all planned grid upgrades must be completed by 2028 to unlock offshore wind projects already in the pipeline.

At the current rate of progress, the UK would reach only just over 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, well short of the planned 43 GW. The report calls for clearer deadlines, stronger accountability for grid companies and compensation where projects are delayed. If progress does not improve, it says the government should be ready to step in and fast track delivery.

Finally, OEUK says offshore wind needs steady, predictable growth, rather than stop start investment. It is calling for annual auctions delivering at least 5 GW a year from 2026 to 2030, so that supply chains can plan ahead, costs can be kept down and skilled jobs are retained in the UK.