In a new report, Lessons on energy security after the Hormuz crisis, the authors say that the 2026 Iran crisis is not an isolated event, but a clear manifestation of a structural vulnerability in the global energy system.

‘Heavy reliance on geographically concentrated fossil fuel supply and critical transit routes exposes economies to large, sudden and recurrent disruptions, which transmit rapidly through prices, trade and inflation. The scale of the current shock, affecting around 20mn b/d of oil and 20% of LNG, may increase fossil energy costs by around 20% this year, if high prices are sustained.’

They continue: ‘Reliance on long and exposed supply lines [such as in fossil fuels] can constrain both industrial activity and the functioning of critical infrastructure. By contrast, clean energy systems shift towards distributed domestic resources, electrification and long-lived capital assets, significantly reducing exposure to price shocks and supply interruptions.’

The ETC argues that emergency responses must protect vulnerable households and essential services, while avoiding long-term fossil fuel lock-in. Expanding fossil fuel infrastructure may appear to strengthen security, but risks reinforcing exposure to volatile global fuel markets.

The report sets out a more durable crisis response: accelerate renewables, electrification, cleaner fuels and fertilisers, and energy efficiency.

The authors say: ‘As in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, our view is that the right response is to accelerate the clean energy transition, not to increase fossil fuel dependence. High and volatile fossil fuel prices make zero-carbon alternatives competitive. But seizing this opportunity requires clear strategic direction, strong policy action and careful management of near-term trade-offs.’