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Hormuz closure exposes EU and UK’s shrinking refining resilience
26/5/2026
8 min read
Feature
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israeli conflict with Iran has not triggered the immediate supply shock many feared. But beneath the disruption in global oil markets, the crisis has exposed growing EU and UK dependence on imported refined fuels following years of declining domestic refining capacity, writes Paul Cochrane.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on Iran by the US and Israel has disrupted one of the world’s most important energy corridors, affecting around 35% of global seaborne crude exports and reducing oil supply by an estimated 10mn b/d, according to World Bank figures. Yet two months into the crisis, the severe supply shock many analysts feared has so far failed to materialise in the EU and UK.
Part of the reason is that oil markets entered the conflict in a relatively strong position. Commercial inventories and strategic reserves in Europe and North America remained high following a period of oversupply, helping cushion the immediate impact of disruption in the Gulf.
‘It has been pretty stable, almost remarkably so,’ says Jamie Baker, Director of External Relations at Fuels Industry UK. ‘Here we are two months in, and the situation is not quite as severe as the doomsday scenarios of the early days [of the conflict].’