Recent geopolitical developments, including the Iran conflict, have contributed to a sharp rise in global fossil fuel prices, disproportionately affecting Asian and African economies, which are typically major net importers of oil and gas. Elevated prices are therefore likely to support increased clean tech imports across emerging markets. Historical BNEF data indicates that countries with greater dependence on fuel imports have tended to record stronger growth in imports of solar equipment, batteries and electric vehicles (EVs).

Pakistan provides a notable example. In 2022, solar module imports increased by 189% to $1bn, partly driven by the global fuel price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Small-scale solar installations in the country reached a record 18.3 GW in 2025 following years of steady growth. This expansion has been supported by high electricity tariffs linked to costly LNG imports, as well as persistent power outages and load-shedding.

BNEF also highlights persistent overcapacity as a defining feature of global supply chains, largely driven by substantial Chinese investment. Manufacturing capacity is estimated to exceed global demand by more than 200% across the value chain, contributing to sustained margin compression for key clean tech products. Wind and battery markets are similarly oversupplied. At the same time, efforts to expand manufacturing capacity outside China are adding to the global supply surplus, with regions such as Southeast Asia, India and Turkey emerging as key solar manufacturing hubs alongside developing markets including Egypt and Ethiopia.

The analysis further examines efforts to ‘onshore’ manufacturing. Despite the introduction of numerous policy frameworks across Western economies, the findings indicate that the US and EU are unlikely to become competitive exporters at a global scale. Although factory capacity has increased, expansions have been concentrated downstream, while a number of previously announced projects are now facing delays or cancellations due to slow demand, shifting policies and intensifying competition.

Even though overcapacity persists, the report notes that clean energy equipment prices are no longer declining as rapidly as in recent years. Solar prices continued to fall in 2025, although the rate of decline slowed, primarily due to rising silver prices. Battery pack prices fell from $118/kWh in 2024 to $108/kWh, but again at a slower rate, largely reflecting elevated battery metal prices. In contrast, onshore wind equipment prices increased slightly as turbine manufacturers sought to recover earlier losses.

Hybrid renewables deliver cost-competitive 24/7 power, IRENA finds 
A separate report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) confirms the increasing cost-competitiveness of round-the-clock renewable power through hybrid systems combining solar or wind and battery storage. The analysis finds that, in high-quality resource regions, such hybrid systems can deliver continuous power at lower cost than fossil fuel alternatives.

Firm levelised costs of electricity for solar-plus-storage are estimated at $54–$82/MWh in high-quality resource regions, compared with $70–85/MWh for new coal in China and more than $100/MWh for new gas globally. These hybrid configurations optimise the use of constrained grid connections, enable electricity generation to shift to higher-value periods and reduce exposure to price volatility. They are also said to be well-suited to energy-intensive users requiring uninterrupted supply, such as AI and data centres, and support the production of clean fuels for hard-to-abate sectors.

IRENA’s analysis shows that firm costs have declined rapidly, driven by falling costs for solar PV, wind power and battery storage. Since 2010, total installed costs declined by 87% for solar PV and by 55% for onshore wind, while battery storage costs have declined by 93%.

Further cost reductions are expected as a result of continued technological learning, increased manufacturing scale and improved supply chain integration.

IRENA analysis of solar-plus-battery configurations shows that firm costs have fallen from above $100/MWh in 2020 to around $54–82/MWh by 2025 in high-irradiance solar regions. Additional reductions of around 30% by 2030 and 40% by 2035 are projected, potentially bringing costs below $50/MWh at leading sites.

Firm wind plus storage systems are also becoming increasingly competitive. Estimated costs for 2025 range from approximately $59/MWh in Inner Mongolia to around $88–94/MWh across Brazil, Germany and Australia, with projections indicating further declines to around $49–75/MWh by 2030.