Significant UK petroleum reserves could sustain production for the next 20 years

The UK’s petroleum reserves remain at a significant level which could sustain production for at least the next 20 years and beyond if additional undeveloped resources can be matured, according to the UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA). In its latest analysis, the UK Oil and Gas: Reserves and Resources report shows that overall remaining recoverable reserves and resources range from 10bn to 20bn boe.

The findings of the report include:

• The OGA’s estimate for proven and probable (2P) UKCS reserves at end-2017 are 5.4bn boe, which could sustain production from the UKCS for another 20 years or more.
• In 2017, 400mn boe were added to 2P reserves and about 600mn boe were produced, which equates to a reserve replacement ratio of 69%; with 100mn boe matured from new field developments, 80mn boe due to infield activities and approximately 220mn boe reserves replacement due to field-life extensions.
• The UK’s contingent resource level (2C) is significant, with a central estimate of discovered undeveloped resources of 7.5bn boe. Much of this resource is in mature areas, with 2.1bn boe expected to be added through new field developments, 2.1bn boe from incremental projects in producing fields, and the remaining 3.2bn boe from undeveloped discoveries where no activity is currently being proposed.
• The maturation of contingent resources presents a significant opportunity for the continued development of the UK’s petroleum resources. This will require substantial investment in both new field developments and incremental projects.
• Exploration success in 2017 delivered an additional 181mn boe contingent resources. A key part of exploration stewardship is now to progress significant opportunities within the prospective resource portfolio into drill-ready prospects, and into subsequent discoveries.
• During the last two years the OGA has undertaken an extensive exercise with the British Geological Survey (BGS) to re-evaluate the UKCS mapped lead and prospect inventory which, following volumetric, economic and risk adjustments, is now estimated at a mean value of 4.1bn boe.
• The OGA has also undertaken statistical play analysis and an additional mean prospective resource of 11.2bn boe is estimated to be contained in plays outside of mapped leads and prospects, with the proportion of gas being greater than 60%.
  
  Gunther Newcombe, Operations Director at the OGA, says: ‘OGA’s current estimate of remaining recoverable hydrocarbon reserves and resources from UKCS’s producing fields, undeveloped discoveries and mapped leads and prospects is in the range 10bn to 20bn boe plus. Extended field life, due to lower operating costs and higher oil price, additional producing field incremental projects, actively worked undeveloped discoveries, and a robust prospect and lead inventory, supplemented by a significant upside potential derived from statistical play fairway analysis, are all key factors in making the UKCS a world class petroleum province… Future success of the basin requires attracting additional investment and drilling, implementing technology, and company collaboration on new and existing developments.’