Electric vehicle battery prices fell by 13% in 2020 – BNEF

This represents an 89% fall in real terms since 2010, when battery pack prices were above $1,100/kWh, and a 13% fall since 2019. BNEF’s 2020 Battery Price Survey, which considers passenger EVs, e-buses, commercial EVs and stationary storage, suggests that the average price could fall to approximately $101/kWh by 2023.

The survey reports that it’s at around this price point that automakers should be able to produce and sell mass market EVs at the same price (and with the same margin) as comparable internal combustion vehicles in some markets. This assumes no subsidies are available, but actual pricing strategies will vary by automaker and geography.

The lowest battery prices were found in China, where e-bus batteries were cited as under

$100/kWh. The fall in price, says BNEF, can be attributed to increasing order sizes, growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales and the introduction of new battery pack designs.

New cathode chemistries and falling manufacturing costs will continue to drive prices down in the near term. The prices of cathode materials have fallen since reaching a high in spring 2018, finding a more stable level during 2020, says BNEF.

‘It is a historic milestone to see pack prices of less than $100/kWh reported. Within just a few years we will see the average price in the industry pass this point,’ says James Frith, BNEF’s Head of Energy Storage Research and lead author of the report.

He adds: ‘What’s more, our analysis shows that even if prices for raw materials were to return to the highs seen in 2018, it would only delay average prices reaching $100/kWh by two years – rather than completely derailing the industry. The industry is becoming increasingly resilient to changing raw material prices, with leading battery manufacturers moving up the value chain and investing in cathode production or even mines.’