China unveils climate plan

China submitted its climate strategy (or INDC – intended nationally determined contributions) to the United Nations (UN) at the close of June. The plan includes a commitment to peak greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around 2030, to reduce carbon intensity by between 60% and 65% from 2005 levels, and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix by about 20% by 2030. According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), the latter will require China to deploy 800 to 1,000 GW in non-fossil capacity, close to the US’ total current electricity capacity.

China’s plan reflects its firm commitment to address the climate crisis. As noted in Petroleum Review’s July issue (pp28–29), the country is largely motivated by strong national interests to tackle persistent air pollution problems, limit climate impacts and expand its renewable energy sector. 

The new carbon intensity target builds on China’s existing target to reduce intensity 40–45% by 2020 and is roughly consistent with scenarios showing China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking in 2030. WRI notes: ‘While this target demonstrates China’s intention to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth, some analysts suggest that China could peak its emissions much earlier and at a lower intensity. Indeed, the INDCs overall – both China’s and those of other countries, like the European Union and the US – should be viewed as a floor rather than a ceiling on ambition.’

The Chinese plans also include an ‘aggressive’ forest carbon goal. This first debuted in China’s national climate change strategy announced late last year, but had not been formalised internationally until now. ‘Increasing forest carbon stocks by 4.5bn cm implies an increase in forest cover of 50–100mn hectares (124–247mn acres) of forest, or about two to four times the size of the UK,’ comments WRI. ‘This amount of forest would create a roughly 1-Gt (gigatonne) carbon sink, equivalent to stopping tropical deforestation for almost a full year, or taking 770mn cars off the road.’

In the lead-up to climate negotiations in Paris later this year, some 40 countries have now released their national commitments, showing the growing momentum behind international climate action this year. According to WRI, some 54.7% of global emissions are now covered by countries that have submitted an INDC, with 87.5% of them including mitigation pledges.

South Korea, the Republic of Serbia and Iceland also unveiled their climate plans at the close of June. South Korea plans to reduce its GHG emissions by 37% from its business-as-usual (850.6 MtCO2eq) level by 2030 across all economic sectors. The INDC includes a section on adaptation. Serbia intends to reduce GHG emissions by 9.8% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Iceland aims to be part of a collective delivery by European countries to reach a target of 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, as WRI notes, ‘a precise commitment for Iceland within such collective delivery has yet to be determined and is dependent on an agreement with the European Union and its member states and possibly other countries’.

More recently, Singapore has announced that it intends to reduce its emissions intensity by 36% from 2005 levels by 2030, and stabilise its emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030. Meanwhile, New Zealand has committed to reduce GHG emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030 (this responsibility target corresponds to a reduction of 11% from 1990 levels). WRI notes that New Zealand’s INDC will ‘remain provisional pending confirmation of the approaches to be taken in accounting for the land sector, and confirmation of access to carbon markets’.

For more information on announced INDCs, visit http://cait.wri.org/indc/

Source: Mark Godfrey